By: Daniel Nardini

I had previously written about a study by Princeton University about the declining Mexican immigration—legally or undocumented—to the United States. According to the study, far fewer Mexicans are trying to come to the United States. In the year 2000, an estimated 500,000 Mexicans tried to come to the United States per year. By 2010, that number has declined to 180,000 a year. Part of the reason for the decline is stricter U.S. border enforcement and U.S. immigration more willing to deport any and all undocumented.

Then there are the lack of jobs for not just immigrants, both legal and undocumented, but also a serious lack of jobs for Americans in the U.S. This has caused a growing migration of Mexicans back to Mexico. At the same time living standards and the availability of education for all Mexicans has actually improved over the passed 30 years. With Mexico’s birthrate going down, this means that Mexican families are getting smaller. This also means that more Mexicans will be able to buy consumer goods and also afford homes that was not possible before. Better elementary and high school education as well as college is giving Mexicans a better chance at entering better skilled jobs in Mexico. And with the more skilled jobs being created to meet the needs of a growing skilled labor force, Mexico’s middle class is starting to grow.

Nevertheless, there are still many pockets of poverty in Mexico. At the bottom of this poverty hierarchy are the indigenous peoples. These peoples will still face many obstacles in Mexico even as social and economic conditions improve for millions of Mexicans. The indigenous peoples have less access to education, less access to good jobs or jobs at all, and less access to the political system in Mexico. These things will still drive many indigenous Mexicans north to the United States, and it will remain a problem for a long while to come.

Will what is happening in the more affluent areas of Mexico eventually change the conditions for indigenous Mexicans? This remains unknown and a probability. And every state in Mexico is different. Interestingly enough in Chiapas and Oaxaca states conditions have improved from the 1990’s while conditions in states like Guerrero and Chihuahua have stagnated. In what state and region of Mexico people live in will determine whether they stay put or move north. Another factor is the continuing drug war. But even this will not dictate who will necessarily go and stay in Mexico. There are many parts of Mexico that are still unaffected by this vicious war. Many indigenous Mexican communities have not been touched by it. Whatever factors contribute to those Mexicans who will risk everything to go to the United States will still play a part in the Mexican migration even if there are fewer Mexicans going north.