By: Ashmar Mandou

Northwestern University’s Center for the Study of Diversity and Democracy (CSDD) and a coalition of Black and Latino nonprofits held a virtual press conference this week to unveil where voters land between candidates Brandon Johnson and Paul Vallas as we are less than a week away from the April 4th runoff election. According to the CSDD, the choice among voters is evenly split between Vallas and Johnson, with each candidate earning 44 percent of the overall vote, with 12 percent undecided.

The poll was broken down by race/ethnicity, Black registered voters favor Johnson by a wide margin. Fifty-five percent have decided to vote for or lean toward Johnson, versus 28 percent favoring Vallas. Among Latino registered voters, 46 percent favor Vallas, while 35 percent prefer Johnson. “This latest poll once again demonstrates that voters of color are a coveted and influential demographic that have the power to decide elections, but they must be persuaded about why voting matters in their lives and why they need to show up to the polls,” said Nathalie Rayes, president and CEO of Latino Victory Project.

“The wild card on April 4th is the Latino vote,” said Jaime Domínguez, associate professor of instruction in Northwestern’s department of political science and CSDD research affiliate. “And neither candidate appears to have a lock on this electorate. Yet, turnout will be critical given the Latino share of undecideds. Even if one-third of Latino voters think that Vallas is a co-ethnic, the Latino vote is still a very diverse and multi-dimensional collective, so targeted outreach efforts will be critical in the coming days.” 

Other poll findings include:

• Lower-income voters less decided: Lower-income earners report higher levels of indecision in the race, with 29 percent saying they have not made a decision yet. Among high-income earners, Johnson leads Vallas 46 percent to 42 percent and has fewer undecided voters, with 12 percent of those reporting incomes over $80,000 saying they have not decided yet.

• Lightfoot and Garcia Voters: Voters who said they supported Lightfoot and Garcia in the primary were asked which candidate they are supporting in the runoff election. Among Lightfoot voters, 41 percent say they will support Johnson and 22 percent will support Vallas, with 37 percent still undecided. Among Garcia voters, 38 percent indicate they will vote for Vallas and 34 percent for Johnson. Among Garcia voters, 27 percent indicate they are still undecided.

• The poll found that reducing crime is far and away the most important issue, with 50 percent of registered voters saying it is an important issue. Likewise, across race/ethnicity, 49 percent of Latino, 53 percent of Black and 50 percent of white voters cited crime as the most important issue.