By Daniel Nardini

My dear friend Russ told me that the Chinese armed forces is still continually crossing Taiwan’s air defense perimeter in force to test Taiwan’s defenses. The U.S. Navy and now the Japanese Self-defense forces have been crossing into the Taiwan Straits to counter the Chinese threat. Why is none of this headlines? Because the stupid presidential elections has taken up most of the headlines. The whole scenario looks like Armageddon and yet little to nothing is mentioned about it. This is the situation my friend Russ and his family in Taiwan must deal with. He told me that if the bombs start dropping that they will get him and his wife on the first run. It sounds like a horrible thing to say, but there is a sad logic to it. If a war should break out between China and Taiwan, then it will be a war of cataclysmic proportions.

I really detest armchair generals and former armed forces people who talk about a war in East Asia as if it will be a clean affair with forces of almost all of the nations moving their forces like pieces on a chess board and just fighting each other in this or that battle to see who will be the winner. Such a war will be far from clean. If anything, this war will be a complete disaster of unimaginable proportions. First that will happen is that the whole supply chain of manufactured goods will be disrupted and almost everything we depend on will cease to come to America’s shores. Americans may have to do without cell phones, parts for vehicles, computers and computer chips, flat screen TV’s, cars (especially from Japan), toys, electronics and electronic parts, many household appliances, and the list could go on. Can the average American of the 2020’s imagine living without any of the things I have mentioned in everyday life? We may have to get used to reading printed books again! But such a war will make all of this either be hard to find or impossible to get anymore.

Then there will be the danger of Americans being able to travel to the Asia-Pacific region for any reason because if such a war breaks out then all shipping and airplanes could be subject to attack by Chinese submarines and military jets. It is possible that rogue Chinese military units might escape the first island chain of defense and be out there somewhere in the Pacific or even beyond. Hence, American shipping and even civilian cruise lines could be in grave danger. In other words unrestricted submarine and aircraft warfare. Add drones to the mix and it becomes that much more dangerous and unpredictable. Can the U.S. military be everywhere to prevent this? Countries totally at war will see no restrictions on what they can do, and China will certainly see no restrictions on what it can do for achieving victory. The same is true for Taiwan, the United States, Japan, and whoever might be involved in the war (like Australia, New Zealand, and the two Koreas). The problem with this kind of war is that it can go well beyond the two belligerents of China and Taiwan.

This brings me to the next point of who might be involved in such a war and the number of dead. Obviously China and Taiwan will be involved in such a war. So will Japan since some of its possessions, the Senkaku Islands, are right next to Taiwan and it will be impossible for the Chinese armed forces to avoid these Japanese islands to blockade Taiwan. The United States will most likely be involved because Japan will be involved and the Chinese might attack the American possession of Guam. The two Koreas might get involved or they might remain neutral. Russia is a wild card. Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia might get involved because China will attack them in the South China Sea. Whole areas of Asia will be bombed, destroyed and laid to waste. Hundreds of thousands will be killed in the beginning, and no doubt all involved will seek revenge against China. They will make sure that all import access points for China are cut off and this could eventually lead to a blockade of Chinese ports leading to whole regions of China starving. There could be tens of millions and even hundreds of millions of Chinese starving to death in such a war if they are not killed in a war. You can be sure of one thing, Taiwan and most likely anyone else will take such a war to China itself.

This will be a war on such a scale and in so much of the Asia-Pacific region and maybe beyond that it can be called a World War. And with the weapons, weapons systems, and the technology that we all have now this war will be horrendous. Those who somehow survive the destruction this war will bring will envy the dead. And I have not even talked about nuclear weapons yet! Is there a glimmer of hope such a war will not occur? One glimmer of hope. If we all stand in unity against China’s imperial designs against Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific area then maybe such a war can be prevented. A change in leadership in China might change the picture. Until then this is a time bomb that could go off even as I write this.